Iraq is further sinking in anarchy
Last week, there was a report on CBC radio that was pointing out to some scary developments in Iraqi city of Basra: The religious vigilanties are increasingly gaining power and influence in the city. They are so-called guiding people not to do the "bad" things, such as not to play music, not to dance, and they are asking women to wear head-scarf. Their influence is so significant that, many local musicians who used to play at local tea shops and restaurants, are scared of continuation of playing music. This is how it started in Iran. First they were "asking" people, then as soon as they got more power, they started forcing people to do so.
On the other hand, shias who used to be considered as allies of the occupiers, are increasingly influenced by hardline clerics in Baghdad and other central regions of Iraq. Moghtada al-Sadr, 31 year old son of a revered Shiite cleric who (along his two other sons) was assassinated in 1999 by Saddam's hit men, is one of the clerics that is urging the Shias to fight for their religion. He is also a the nephew of the famous cleric, Imam Mosa al-Sadr, who was also silenced by Saddam in 1980. He is officially talking about forcing women to wear head-scarf. He is officially talking about punishing those who drink alcoholic beverages. He is officially talking about creation of an Islamic Republic, similar to Iran, and the worst things is that many people buy what he sells.
The current situation in Iraq has also had a negative impact on issues related to Iran. Although I would've never agreed with any attack and attempts to invade Iran by the US or any other foreign forces, I believe as long there was a threat of attacking Iraq by the US existed, and before the actual attack took place, there was a fear in the ruling regime in Tehran, however, that fear now is increasingly changing to joy by that regime and that fear doesn't exist anymore. In fact, Iran (regime) sees itself as the winner of the current situation as they have a significant influence on flipping pages of Iraq events today. Also, they are sure now that with such quagmire in Iraq, US would never dare to attack Iran. and they allow themselves to continue to do whatever the hell they wish; business as usual and that is a bad news for the people of Iran. This is perhaps another negative "Bush" effect on its war "for freedom" and "against terror".
Without questioning the 1979 revolution in Iran as an event to be proud of, the years following that great milestone of Iranian history, when the hardline clerics stole the revolution from the people of Iran, and consolidated their power, partially thanks to US-backed Saddam Hussein's attack on Iran, gives me enough reason to believe history is somehow being repeated in Iraq.
This might be even a very simplistic interpretation of the current events in Iraq. Even the possibility of worse than this to happen in Iraq, is significant. Iraq can be well in the path of civil war. Sonnies, many of whom may still want Saddam back have lost influence, Shias and on the top, the hardline clerics who have always wanted something similar to Iran model and always hated Saddam's sonni- dominated regime, are gaining influence. This is a recipe for upcoming confrontations between them that can lead to very scary results, On the other hand Kurds, are increasingly shouting their desire for independence and the oil-rich city of Kerkuk as their capital. This can create aggressive reactions from the other fractions of the Iraqi society. In short, things do not look good.
On the other hand, the US occupation forces are increasingly under attack by the Sunnies and recently by the shias and no body really knows "bring'm on" bullshit can last for how long!
What I see the growing influence of the hardline clerics, especially on Iraqi youth, I feel nothing but fear for bad times ahead. I cannot believe so much destruction, so much uncertainty, so much killings, because of some greedy pirate bast...ds who where and are too stupid to learn from history, to learn from Vietnam, that occupation will eventually fail, but what comes after it, is a very risky unknown.
On the other hand, shias who used to be considered as allies of the occupiers, are increasingly influenced by hardline clerics in Baghdad and other central regions of Iraq. Moghtada al-Sadr, 31 year old son of a revered Shiite cleric who (along his two other sons) was assassinated in 1999 by Saddam's hit men, is one of the clerics that is urging the Shias to fight for their religion. He is also a the nephew of the famous cleric, Imam Mosa al-Sadr, who was also silenced by Saddam in 1980. He is officially talking about forcing women to wear head-scarf. He is officially talking about punishing those who drink alcoholic beverages. He is officially talking about creation of an Islamic Republic, similar to Iran, and the worst things is that many people buy what he sells.
The current situation in Iraq has also had a negative impact on issues related to Iran. Although I would've never agreed with any attack and attempts to invade Iran by the US or any other foreign forces, I believe as long there was a threat of attacking Iraq by the US existed, and before the actual attack took place, there was a fear in the ruling regime in Tehran, however, that fear now is increasingly changing to joy by that regime and that fear doesn't exist anymore. In fact, Iran (regime) sees itself as the winner of the current situation as they have a significant influence on flipping pages of Iraq events today. Also, they are sure now that with such quagmire in Iraq, US would never dare to attack Iran. and they allow themselves to continue to do whatever the hell they wish; business as usual and that is a bad news for the people of Iran. This is perhaps another negative "Bush" effect on its war "for freedom" and "against terror".
Without questioning the 1979 revolution in Iran as an event to be proud of, the years following that great milestone of Iranian history, when the hardline clerics stole the revolution from the people of Iran, and consolidated their power, partially thanks to US-backed Saddam Hussein's attack on Iran, gives me enough reason to believe history is somehow being repeated in Iraq.
This might be even a very simplistic interpretation of the current events in Iraq. Even the possibility of worse than this to happen in Iraq, is significant. Iraq can be well in the path of civil war. Sonnies, many of whom may still want Saddam back have lost influence, Shias and on the top, the hardline clerics who have always wanted something similar to Iran model and always hated Saddam's sonni- dominated regime, are gaining influence. This is a recipe for upcoming confrontations between them that can lead to very scary results, On the other hand Kurds, are increasingly shouting their desire for independence and the oil-rich city of Kerkuk as their capital. This can create aggressive reactions from the other fractions of the Iraqi society. In short, things do not look good.
On the other hand, the US occupation forces are increasingly under attack by the Sunnies and recently by the shias and no body really knows "bring'm on" bullshit can last for how long!
What I see the growing influence of the hardline clerics, especially on Iraqi youth, I feel nothing but fear for bad times ahead. I cannot believe so much destruction, so much uncertainty, so much killings, because of some greedy pirate bast...ds who where and are too stupid to learn from history, to learn from Vietnam, that occupation will eventually fail, but what comes after it, is a very risky unknown.
posted by Faramin | 7:17 p.m.
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